This week, the market’s attention is highly focused on the upcoming inflation data, whose results will directly test the feasibility and necessity of the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay interest rate cuts. The February Core PCE Index released on Thursday and the March CPI data published on Friday have become key determinants of interest rate trends and are reshaping investors’ pricing logic for risky assets such as Bitcoin. Market sentiment has shifted significantly from initial confidence in interest rate cuts to concerns about the persistence of high interest rates. Such drastic fluctuations in macro expectations are profoundly affecting the valuation models of crypto assets. Data from the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of no interest rate cuts in 2026 soared from 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%, reflecting a growing fear of tighter monetary policy. As a result, André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, noted that Bitcoin prices have already reflected pessimistic expectations of an economic recession in the United States, acting as a kind of canary in a coal mine—indicating changes in the overall economic situation before they occur. However, the unexpectedly strong March ISM Manufacturing Index suggests that the U.S. economy is more resilient to high oil prices than in previous cycles, reducing the probability of a recession this year to 28% from 37%. According to Monitored by Woofun AI, this revision of fundamental data has significantly improved Bitcoin’s risk-return ratio, as prices have already incorporated negative scenarios into their calculations while the actual data demonstrates resilience. It is worth noting that any sudden escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could still trigger extreme negative outcomes expected by current prices, leading to significant market adjustments. As the key inflation data releases approach, the market will seek a new balance between revised interest rate cut expectations and verified economic resilience, and Bitcoin’s role as a macro-hedging tool will be subject to further scrutiny.