Woofun AI reports that ETH has encountered a formidable barrier at the $1,915–$1,950 zone, suffering rejection on both July 30 and July 31. This double failure has redirected market attention toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near $1,870, while the July 31 high approached but failed to sustain above the 100-day moving average. Sellers aggressively entered the market before price could establish dominance within the wider resistance area defined by the $1,920 level, the declining SMA, and the upper boundary near $1,950. These consecutive rejections indicate that buyers have not yet absorbed the significant supply present in this region, leaving the asset trapped between immediate support and persistent overhead pressure.

Structurally, momentum indicators remain intact despite the recent reversal, with the RSI holding at 58, comfortably above its signal line at 52. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1,870 has served as a reliable floor, halting each pullback over the past five sessions. On July 31, Ethereum dipped to $1,875, placing the price within approximately $5 of this critical retracement level. A daily close below $1,870 would shatter the support structure that has held firm throughout the week, potentially triggering a deeper correction. The next visible reaction areas are located near $1,850 and $1,800, zones where buyers previously intervened to interrupt the decline after ETH breached the same Fibonacci level in prior cycles.

The macroeconomic backdrop remained stable as neither of the week’s major central-bank meetings resulted in a rate hike. The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.5%–3.75% on July 29, although three voting members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Similarly, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate at 1.0% on July 31, with one member advocating for a rise to 1.25%. While these decisions did not introduce new rate shocks to exacerbate the pullback, the presence of dissenting votes keeps the possibility of further tightening on the horizon, adding a layer of caution to market sentiment.

Per Woofun AI, the latest Ethereum ETF data from SoSoValue reveals a complex flow dynamic. The July 30 inflow managed to recover most of the previous day’s outflow, resulting in a combined figure that remained slightly negative.

However, the dataset does not yet include July 31, leaving a gap in understanding how ETF investors reacted to the second rejection at resistance. This missing data point is crucial for assessing whether institutional demand is weakening in the face of technical barriers or if the initial inflows were merely a temporary stabilization effort.

CoinGlass spot and futures data further illustrate the negative net flows during the latest reporting periods. The 12-hour futures outflow was $96.36 million larger than the full 24-hour figure, indicating that the earlier half of the window was net positive by approximately the same amount. In spot markets, the latest 24 hours accounted for roughly 85% of the three-day net outflow, suggesting that most of the selling pressure was concentrated in the most recent period. Although aggregated figures do not pinpoint the exact timing of the shift, the concentration of outflows in the final hours highlights a decisive move by traders to exit positions ahead of potential downside risk.

Ethereum now operates within a tight range bounded by support near $1,870 and resistance from $1,915 to $1,950. A daily close below the $1,870 support would expose the $1,850 and $1,800 levels, potentially accelerating the decline. Conversely, a sustained close above the 100-day SMA and the $1,950 resistance would bring the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1,985 into view, signaling a potential breakout. This marks a critical juncture where technical structure and macroeconomic caution intersect, determining the next directional move for the asset.